Saturday, August 09, 2008

Pirates & the future: Once rebuilding begins, it must be a full effort in that direction.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/
Sunday, August 10, 2008


Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

Jack Wilson will make $7.25 million in 2009. Can the Pirates expect to get their money's worth, particularly at the plate?


With the trading of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady and with there being trade discussions involving Jack Wilson and John Grabow, it should be obvious to everyone that the Pirates are embarking on a rebuilding program, which -- if it works -- might not produce a winning team for several more seasons.

Hall of Infamy, here come the Pirates!

This isn't to suggest there's anything wrong with rebuilding. In fact, with Bay and Nady gone, it's the only prudent course the team can follow. Once rebuilding begins, it must be a full effort in that direction. The clear downside to rebuilding around Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm is that it almost certainly will result in additional losing seasons.
There is a segment of the fan base that will not be bothered by more losing as long as the focus is on rebuilding. This group seems to revel in rebuilding and made that clear at various Internet sites by applauding the trades of Bay and Nady, although the deals clearly diminished the team for the present. There's an element of hope that comes with rebuilding that has a definite appeal to many people.

It is unknown how many of these people are ticket buyers. The feeling here is that the ticket-buying public is less enthralled with the recent trades and the prospect of rebuilding. The steady decline in attendance at PNC Park, stemmed only by the chance to buy tickets to the All-Star Game in 2006, speaks clearly to the fact that ticket buyers are tired of the losing and less apt to be inspired by a rebuilding process.

Since ownership is not interested in losing money, the decline in ticket sales might get its attention if it were not for revenue sharing. It might not be correct to say that the more a team loses, the more it gets in revenue sharing, but suffice to say losing has its advantages. The chances of the Pirates not turning a profit during a rebuilding phase are slim because marching hand-in-hand with rebuilding is lower payroll. Make no mistake, the Pirates are headed to a lower rung on the payroll scale, which isn't easy to do since they are almost annually last in that category in the National League Central Division.

It's no surprise Wilson has been mentioned in trade talks. He is making $6.5 million this season and is schedule to get $7.25 million in 2009. That's not a salary a team in rebuilding mode wants to pay, particularly to a shortstop who will be 31 in December and had a .316 on-base percentage and a .332 slugging percentage. Wilson batted .225 in July and was hitting .190 in August going into the weekend.

It's more peculiar the Pirates would be trying to move Grabow, who is making $1.135 million this season and probably will make in the $2.5 million range next year. Considering they have no one to replace Grabow, attempts to trade him smack of a pure salary dump.

With that in mind, here are some other players who might be in their last season with the Pirates.

Jose Bautista: His salary this season, his first in arbitration, is $1.8 million. That will probably jump into the $2 million range next season. It's unlikely the Pirates want to carry a $2 million utility man, which is Bautista's role since Andy LaRoche was acquired.

Zach Duke: He'll be arbitration eligible next season, and with the new depth the Pirates have on their pitching staff, it's doubtful the team will go that route with him. Although Duke had an outstanding start last week, he is 4-10 with a 5.13 earned run average. In his five starts before his last one, his ERA was 11.10.

Jason Michaels: He has a $2.6 million option for next season. The Pirates aren't likely to pick that up. Based on the good job he's done this season, there will be a market for Michaels, and his return is unlikely.

Doug Mientkiewicz: If he's not dealt by the end of the season, he'll be a free agent. Like Michaels, he has enhanced his value, particularly with his versatility, and is probably out of the Pirates' price range.

Chris Gomez: Same as above.

Tyler Yates: He's arbitration eligible, which means he could be non-tendered.

Although Huntington did a remarkable job of piecing together a good bench this year and adding better pieces to an awful bullpen, it won't be so easy to add core players for 2009. It looks like some lean years ahead.

The Pirates have placed their future with McLouth, Doumit, Maholm and some of their new players. No one can be certain how high a ceiling those players have or even if they'll maintain the good to excellent seasons they're having.

It's a gamble, but with the Pirates, especially with Bay and Nady gone, what do they have to lose?

Bob Smizik can be reached at bsmizik@post-gazette.com.
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First published on August 10, 2008 at 12:00 am

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